THE LEVERAGE REPORT | OCTOBER 2026

What Washington County's surprising housing numbers and a national rise in canceled contracts reveal about selling a home in today's market.

Imagine you're selling your home and receive two offers.

One buyer offers $10,000 above your asking price.

Another offers slightly less, but has stronger financing, fewer uncertainties, and a closing timeline that fits your plans.

Which offer would you accept?

The highest one?

Maybe. But not necessarily.

Because the price you list at, the offer you accept, and the amount you actually walk away with are three different things.

And some surprising housing data from Washington County, Minnesota, illustrate why homeowners need to understand that distinction.

Are Washington County home prices rising or falling?

According to Realtor.com's September 2026 market data, Washington County recorded two seemingly contradictory trends:

·       Median listing price: $495,000, down 3.1% year over year.

·       Median sold price: $465,000, up 6.9% year over year.

Meanwhile, active listings increased 16.9%, and the median time on market reached 37 days.

So are home prices going up or down?

The answer depends on which part of the market you're measuring.

The median listing price represents the midpoint of asking prices for homes currently offered for sale.

The median sold price represents the midpoint of prices paid for homes that actually closed.

Those are different groups of properties, measured at different stages of the selling process.

Changes in the types, sizes, locations, and price ranges of homes entering or leaving the market can influence both numbers.

Importantly, these figures do not mean the typical Washington County seller reduced their price by the difference between $495,000 and $465,000. Nor do they prove individual homes appreciated 6.9%.

But they do illustrate an important lesson:

What sellers ask, what buyers agree to pay, and what ultimately closes are not interchangeable measures of value.

And there's another part of the transaction homeowners should understand.

Why are more home sales falling apart?

An October 12 report from Redfin found that 14.5% of U.S. homebuying contracts were canceled in September 2026, the highest share in its records outside the early-pandemic disruption.

That's roughly one in seven contracts.

This is a national statistic. It does not mean one in seven Washington County or Twin Cities contracts fell apart.

But it raises a useful question for anyone preparing to sell:

What happens after you accept an offer?

An accepted purchase agreement is a major milestone, but there may still be conditions that need to be satisfied before closing.

Financing must be finalized.

Inspections may reveal unexpected issues.

An appraisal may create financing complications.

A buyer may need to sell another property.

And the parties may need to negotiate repairs, timing, or other contract terms.

Not every problem results in cancellation. Many transactions proceed successfully after additional communication or negotiation.

But a signed agreement is not the same thing as a completed sale.

Until the transaction closes, the seller's proceeds are still expected proceeds, not money in the bank.

Is the highest offer always the best offer for a home seller?

No. The strongest offer is the one that best balances price, terms, risk, and the seller's priorities.

Let's look at a hypothetical Washington County home listed for $425,000.

Two buyers submit offers.

At first glance, Offer A looks better.

It's $8,000 higher.

But before making a decision, I'd want the seller to understand several things.

Has each lender reviewed the buyer's income, assets, and credit?

Are there unresolved financing conditions?

How do the inspection terms differ?

Does either buyer need to sell another home?

How realistic are the proposed closing dates?

And how important is timing to the seller?

A larger down payment doesn't guarantee a successful closing. A shorter inspection period doesn't automatically make an offer safer. And a lower-priced offer isn't necessarily the better choice.

The purpose of comparing these terms isn't to predict which buyer will fail. It's to understand what each offer actually commits the parties to do.

Offer A might still be the clear winner.

Or Offer B might better accomplish the seller's goals.

The right decision depends on the full picture.

What can cause a Minnesota home purchase agreement to fall apart?

Minnesota purchase agreements are legally binding contracts. Buyers and sellers cannot necessarily cancel simply because they change their minds.

However, a contract may contain specific conditions, called contingencies, that affect whether the transaction must proceed.

Here are several important areas to understand.

1. Financing

A preapproval or lender qualification letter is an important starting point, but it isn't a guarantee that a mortgage will close.

A buyer's financial circumstances, underwriting requirements, property eligibility, or appraisal-related financing issues can affect the final loan approval.

For sellers, the goal is to understand the buyer's financing position and the actual protections and deadlines written into the purchase agreement.

2. Home inspections

An inspection can uncover concerns involving the roof, foundation, plumbing, electrical systems, or other parts of the property.

Depending on the agreement, buyers may request repairs, negotiate other terms, proceed without changes, or exercise a contractual cancellation right.

For sellers, preparation and accurate disclosures can help reduce surprises.

But even a carefully prepared home can produce an unexpected inspection finding.

3. Appraisals

A buyer may agree to pay $435,000 for a home, but the lender's appraisal may support a different value.

That doesn't automatically mean the transaction is canceled.

Depending on the financing, contract language, and lender requirements, the parties may have options.

One important Minnesota-specific distinction: not every conventional financing contingency automatically gives the buyer a separate right to cancel simply because the appraisal is below the purchase price.

The actual contract terms matter.

4. Sale of another property

Some buyers need to sell or close on their existing home before they can complete their next purchase.

That introduces another transaction, with its own financing, inspection, and closing considerations.

A seller evaluating this type of offer should understand exactly what must happen, and by when.

5. Deadlines and communication

A transaction can become more difficult when important deadlines are missed, documents are delayed, or problems aren't addressed promptly.

That's why successful transactions require more than a good purchase agreement.

They require consistent follow-through from everyone involved.

What happens to earnest money if a home sale falls apart in Minnesota?

It depends on the purchase agreement, the reason for cancellation, and whether the parties followed the applicable contract requirements.

Earnest money is generally a buyer's good-faith deposit toward the purchase.

Some properly exercised contingencies may allow a buyer to cancel and recover that deposit.

Other circumstances may expose the buyer to losing it.

And even when a contract has ended, the earnest money isn't necessarily released automatically.

Minnesota law and the applicable contract govern how funds held in trust may be distributed.

For both buyers and sellers, the important lesson is straightforward:

Don't assume earnest money is automatically forfeited or automatically refundable. Understand the agreement before signing it.

When a dispute arises, legal advice may be appropriate.

How can Twin Cities sellers improve their chances of a successful closing?

I would focus on four things.

1. Price for the market you're actually entering

Recent comparable sales help establish value.

But active listings, pending sales, buyer activity, and competing properties help explain today's selling environment.

The goal isn't simply to choose the highest defensible asking price.

It's to create a strategy that attracts qualified buyers and produces an agreement the parties can realistically complete.

2. Address avoidable surprises before listing

That doesn't mean renovating your entire home.

It means evaluating condition, maintenance, known defects, disclosures, and the repairs most likely to become obstacles.

Sometimes a relatively small repair can eliminate a major buyer concern.

Other times, selling a property in its current condition is the better financial decision.

The important thing is making that decision deliberately.

3. Evaluate the entire offer, not just the price

Before accepting an offer, understand:

·       The buyer's financing and lender qualifications.

·       Inspection and other contingencies.

·       Earnest money and relevant deadlines.

·       Requested concessions or repairs.

·       The closing timeline.

·       Any dependence on another property sale.

·       How the terms fit your next move.

A good offer comparison should help a seller see both the potential proceeds and the remaining uncertainties.

4. Have a plan for getting from accepted offer to closing

Once an offer is accepted, the work changes.

Now the priorities include inspections, financing milestones, appraisal coordination, title work, agreed repairs, deadlines, and communication.

A problem identified early is often easier to address than one discovered days before closing.

A successful sale isn't just about negotiating the agreement. It's about helping the transaction reach the finish line.

Should sellers accept a lower offer to reduce the risk of cancellation?

Not automatically.

There's no universal rule that a lower offer is safer, or that a higher offer is riskier.

A well-qualified buyer offering more money may have an excellent chance of closing.

A buyer offering less may still encounter financing or inspection problems.

The right approach is to understand the actual terms, assess the information available, and weigh the tradeoffs against your priorities.

For one seller, an extra $8,000 might justify additional uncertainty.

For another, a dependable closing date may be especially important because they've already committed to their next home.

Neither seller is necessarily wrong.

The strongest offer is the one that best serves the seller's goals, not simply the one with the largest number at the top.

What does this mean if you're thinking about selling in Washington County or the Twin Cities?

The Washington County data tell us that asking-price trends and closed-sale-price trends can look very different.

The national Redfin data remind us that even after buyers and sellers reach an agreement, transactions can still fail.

Together, they point toward a more useful way to think about selling a home.

Rather than asking only:

“What's the most I could list my house for?”

I'd encourage homeowners to ask:

“What strategy gives me the best opportunity to accomplish my move, protect my interests, and walk away with the outcome I actually need?”

That conversation includes pricing.

But it also includes preparation, marketing, buyer qualifications, contract terms, financing, timing, and expected net proceeds.

And sometimes, after working through those questions, the best decision may be to wait.

That's useful clarity, too.

The bottom line

Your asking price is a strategy.

Your accepted offer is an agreement.

Your closing is the result.

They're connected, but they aren't the same thing.

A home can attract a strong offer and still encounter problems before closing.

A slightly lower offer can sometimes produce a better overall outcome.

And a higher offer can absolutely be the right choice when the terms support it.

The goal isn't to be afraid of a transaction falling apart.

It's to understand the risks, evaluate the options, and make informed decisions from the beginning.

Because the best sale isn't necessarily the one with the highest offer. It's the one that accomplishes your goals and actually closes.

Understand the market. Know your leverage.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are Washington County home prices going up or down in 2026?

Realtor.com's September 2026 data showed Washington County's median listing price down 3.1% year over year, while its median sold price increased 6.9%. These measures describe different groups of homes and do not establish how much any individual property gained or lost in value.

How often do home purchase agreements fall through?

Redfin reported that 14.5% of U.S. homebuying contracts were canceled in September 2026. That is a national figure, not a verified cancellation rate for Minnesota or Washington County.

Is the highest offer always the best offer when selling a house?

No. Sellers should evaluate purchase price alongside financing, contingencies, concessions, deadlines, closing timing, and their own priorities. A higher offer can be the best offer, but price alone does not establish that.

Can a buyer cancel a purchase agreement in Minnesota?

A buyer may have cancellation rights under specific contingencies or other contract provisions. Those rights depend on the signed agreement, the reason for cancellation, and compliance with applicable requirements and deadlines.

Does a buyer automatically lose earnest money if they back out?

No. Whether earnest money is refundable depends on the contract and circumstances. Minnesota also has specific requirements governing the release of earnest money held in trust.

What should I ask before accepting an offer on my Twin Cities home?

Ask about the buyer's financing, inspection terms, contingencies, earnest money, requested concessions, closing date, and any other conditions that could affect completion. Then compare the offers against your financial and moving goals.

Sources and further reading

·       Realtor.com, Washington County, Minnesota Housing Market Data, September 2026

·       Redfin, U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near 12-Year Low, October 12, 2026

·       Minnesota Attorney General, Home Sellers Handbook: Accepting an Offer

·       Minnesota Realtors, Legal Hotline: Common Contract and Financing Questions

·       Minnesota Realtors, Do We Still Need Earnest Money?

Market statistics reflect the cited reporting periods and may change. Contract and earnest-money discussions are general educational information, not legal advice. Specific rights and obligations depend on the signed agreement and applicable Minnesota law.